CRO Hypothesis Framework

Overview

Most “tests” are just opinions with a coin flip attached. A real hypothesis commits to a prediction specific enough to be wrong — and that’s exactly what makes the result worth something.

This framework structures every test the same way, so a backlog of vague ideas becomes a ranked queue of experiments you can defend to anyone who asks why you’re spending traffic on it.

How it works

Each hypothesis fills four fields: the observation (what the data shows), the change (what you’ll do about it), the predicted effect (on which metric, by roughly how much), and the reasoning (why you expect it).

If you can’t fill the predicted-effect field with a real metric, the test isn’t ready. The structure forces that rigor up front, then prioritizes the queue by expected impact against effort.